Global Business Cycles and India’s Services Exports: An Empirical Analysis
Sujata Kundu, et al.
Global Business Cycles and India’s Services Exports: An Empirical Analysis Economic and Political Weekly Vol.59; No.26-27 - 29 June 2024 pp. 73-83
The degree of synchronisation of India’s exports of goods and services with the global business cycle is examined using a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching regression model for nearly three decades from 1990 to 2021. India’s services exports reveal a higher degree of synchronicity with global gross domestic product growth compared to goods exports. This suggests that services could be a more stable source of overall export growth; however, there is a need for greater diversification of India’s services export basket if potential from global business opportunities is to be reaped.
Commerce
International trade
India
Business
Export of goods and services
Global Business Cycles and India’s Services Exports: An Empirical Analysis Economic and Political Weekly Vol.59; No.26-27 - 29 June 2024 pp. 73-83
The degree of synchronisation of India’s exports of goods and services with the global business cycle is examined using a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching regression model for nearly three decades from 1990 to 2021. India’s services exports reveal a higher degree of synchronicity with global gross domestic product growth compared to goods exports. This suggests that services could be a more stable source of overall export growth; however, there is a need for greater diversification of India’s services export basket if potential from global business opportunities is to be reaped.
Commerce
International trade
India
Business
Export of goods and services