Global Business Cycles and India’s Services Exports: An Empirical Analysis

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  • Economic and Political Weekly Vol.59; No.26-27 - 29 June 2024 pp. 73-83
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Summary: The degree of synchronisation of India’s exports of goods and services with the global business cycle is examined using a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching regression model for nearly three decades from 1990 to 2021. India’s services exports reveal a higher degree of synchronicity with global gross domestic product growth compared to goods exports. This suggests that services could be a more stable source of overall export growth; however, there is a need for greater diversification of India’s services export basket if potential from global business opportunities is to be reaped.
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The degree of synchronisation of India’s exports of goods and services with the global business cycle is examined using a time-varying transition probability Markov-switching regression model for nearly three decades from 1990 to 2021. India’s services exports reveal a higher degree of synchronicity with global gross domestic product growth compared to goods exports. This suggests that services could be a more stable source of overall export growth; however, there is a need for greater diversification of India’s services export basket if potential from global business opportunities is to be reaped.

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